🏠The September Paradox: Highest Supply in 15 Years, Baffling Prices
Halfway through the fall season (with just four weeks to go, including this one), September’s pricing data is officially in, and it’s a bit baffling.
The median price in both Seattle and on the Eastside went up from August, even as the total number of homes for sale hit a 15-year high.
When you put the spreadsheets aside, it feels like prices are down, way down. We’re seeing countless examples of homes purchased between 2021 and 2025 being re-listed this year at asking prices significantly lower than what the sellers originally paid.
- For Buyers: Unprecedented inventory means serious room to negotiate terms and prices.
- For Sellers: Strategic pricing and top-tier presentation are more critical today than at any point in the last decade. A great reality check for sellers is to scroll down to the mortgage calculator on your own listing and see exact monthly payments through a buyer's eyes.
Seattle Market Update
Despite homes for sale climbing to levels not seen since November 2011, Seattle’s median price surprisingly ticked up nearly $25K month over month. With sales volume down, buyers have more leverage than they've had in years, yet price resilience remains stubborn.
- Median Price: $925,000 (up ~$25K MoM | down 2.3% YoY)
- Homes for Sale: 1,959 active listings (up 406 MoM | up ~20% YoY — highest since Nov 2011)
- New Listings: 1,200 (down 193 MoM | up 3% YoY)
- Closed Sales: 417 (down 10% MoM | down 16% YoY)
- Months of Supply: 3.8 months (15-year high)
Eastside Market Update
The Eastside market is firmly shifting toward balanced/buyer territory. With 5 months of supply, the highest level in 15 years, and active listings up 49% year-over-year, buyers finally have time and selection on their side, even as median prices saw a modest monthly bounce.
- Median Price: $1,650,000 (up $58K MoM | down 3% YoY)
- Homes for Sale: 1,498 active listings (up slightly MoM | up 49% YoY)
- New Listings: 758 (up from 618 MoM | up ~26% YoY)
- Closed Sales: 309 (up 3 sales MoM | down 20% YoY)
- Months of Supply: 5.0 months (15-year high)
But what about rates?
Mortgage News Daily didn’t bury the lede today: “Mortgage rates actually fell today, something they've done only 7 times since August 25th.” Rates hanging around ~7.5% are tough, but we’ve been here before. Back on October 19, 2023, rates briefly spiked above 8%.
End of an Era: Spire Seattle is 100% Sold Out!
Last Thursday, our team represented the buyer in the final developer sale at Spire.
Spire kicked off sales in 2018 and opened its doors in 2021. Now, after eight years, the building is officially sold out. We’ve now helped 14 buyers at Spire, more than any other agent or team.
*All the data above is for single-family homes and townhomes; it does not include condos.
🏠Homes we’re selling
- A beautifully updated Washington Park Craftsman on a tree-lined street
- An end-of-dock floating home with front-row views down the Montlake Cut
- Own your own deep-water dock slip on Lake Union
- Penthouse living atop Bellevue Towers, with views for days
- A blank canvas in West Seattle
- A spacious Belltown condo with Puget Sound and Space Needle views
- A completely transformed Eastlake floating home with rooftop deck views
- A flexible 2-bed townhouse with rooftop city views
- A rare Kingsgate tri-level, first time on the market in 25 years
- Build your dream home on Perkins Lane
- A Westlake houseboat
Wonder what your home is worth? Just hit reply.
🍿 Our Latest YouTube Video
🏠Listings That Caught Our Eye Last Week
- Most expensive pending: $5.7M Juanita Waterfront Estate
- Most expensive sale: $11.8M Madison Park Modern
- Least expensive sale: $145K Condo in Burien
- Most popular Seattle listing on Redfin: $1M Cape Cod in Magnolia
đź“° Must-read real estate news
- The Rise of the Nine-Figure listing (The Seattle Times)
- The geographic divide in WA natural gas usage (The Seattle Times)
- South Seattle co-op housing project dies amid financing concerns (PSBJ)
- Late Shurgard founder's Seattle home fetches $11.8 million (PSBJ)
- The Seattle area’s most extreme bedroom communities (The Seattle Times)
We’re seeing more new listings than last year
Seattle: 353 new listings last week, up 2.62% w-o-w
Eastside: 219 new listings last week, down 18.59% w-o-w
…but buyers are putting fewer under contract
Seattle: 170 pending last week, down 15% w-o-w
Eastside: 101 pending last week, down 11.40% w-o-w
🔥 The hottest new listings
$9.6M George Suyama-Designed Estate on Alki Bluff
$8.75M New Construction by Murray Franklyn in Clyde Hill
$8.5M Magnolia Waterfront Compound with Multiple Homes (First look!)
$3.9M New Mid-Century-Inspired Home in Innis Arden
Check out last week’s market update “We’re so f—–” but buyers haven’t given up
And don’t miss our next update, sign up for our weekly newsletter.
🏠“We’re so f—–” but buyers haven’t given up
More like this
”
🏠“We’re so f—–” but buyers haven’t given up
“We’re so f———.” That was the email I got from another agent after last week’s newsletter. At the time, mortgage rates were at 7.17%. Today, they’re at 7.6%. You’d expect buyers to hit the brakes. But did they? Last week, buyers across Seattle and the Eastside put 314 homes under contract. Compare that to 351 […]
Matt Goyer
October 1, 2026
”
🏠Early fall market signals (+ a $71M new listing)
After a massive wave of new listings over the past two weeks, how many more will we see? Are any buyers out there? Early signals for the fall season: sellers far outnumber buyers (see the graphs below), and prices will likely be coming down once we have data for September and October. Here’s what we’re […]
Matt Goyer
September 23, 2026
”
🏠500+ listings in 1 week (and rates at 7.22%)
Mortgage rates are at their highest point since January 2025, and we just logged the busiest week for new listings in the eight years we’ve been tracking this data—the only week on record to cross the 500 mark. Supply is surging while demand remains soft, putting immediate pressure on sellers. With the fall market wrapping […]
Matt Goyer
September 16, 2026
